Brexit and democracy
Brexit nonetheless presents a decision problem in its purest form. It is a test of human ingenuity and reasonableness, of our ability to compromise and solve problems…
The huge barrier, of course, is the democratic nature of the government….
So many of humanity’s core problems — addressing climate change, improving education, boosting innovation — ultimately have the same structure as “fixing Brexit.” It’s just that these other problems come in less transparent form and without such a firm deadline. We face tournament-like choices and perhaps we will not end up doing the right thing.
…Brexit would likely cost the U.K. about 2 percent of GDP, a fair estimate in my view. But that is not the only thing at stake here. Humanity is on trial — more specifically, its collective decision-making capacity — and it is the U.K. standing in the dock.I guess I have a different view of the merits and defects of democracy. My view is somewhat like the famous Churchill quote, “democracy is the worst form of Government. Except for all those other forms.”
Democracy does not give us speedy technocratically optimal solutions to complex questions revolving around 2 percentage points of GDP. Democracy, and US democracy in particular, serves one great purpose — to guard against tyranny. That’s what the US colonists were upset about, not the fine points of tariff treaties. US and UK Democracy, when paired with the complex web of checks and balances and rule of law protections and constitutions and so forth, has been pretty good at throwing the bums out before they get too big for their britches. At least it has done so better than any other system.
2 percentage points of GDP? Inability to tackle long run issues? Let’s just think of some of Democracy’s immense failures that put the Brexit muddle to shame. The US was unable to resolve slavery, for nearly 100 years, without civil war. Democracies dithered in the 1930s and appeased Hitler. The scar of Vietnam is still festering in US polarization today. On the continent, when France stood for democracy and Germany for autocracy, France’s defense decisions failed dramatically in 1914 and 1939.
And if we want to raise UK GDP by 2 percentage points, with free-market reforms, there is a lot worse than Brexit simmering on the front burner. A team from Cato and Hoover could probably raise GDP by 20 percent inside a year. If anyone would pay the slightest attention to us.
Yes, Brexit is a muddle which nobody will be happy with, until the UK decides if it really would rather remain or become a free-market beacon on the edge of the continent. But do not judge democracy on it. Democracy’s errors as the mechanism for collective decision-making capacity have been far worse. And then there are the failures of all the other options.