Econometric Models Put Bitcoin’s ‘Intrinsic Value’ between $1,080 and $8,778
The price of Bitcoin has stood in a range between $5,500 and $8,000 for three months, now hovering around the $7,000 handle.
Market participants could be in need of some price stability after the rally towards the $20,000 area in late 2017 and the subsequent downfall earlier this year.
However, opinions diverge when it comes to what the real price should be.
Econometric Models Estimate Bitcoin Price Based on Supply or Demand
Analysts use different methods and criteria to evaluate the intrinsic value of it and come up with price predictions ranging from zero to $1 million.
One criteria is the cost to mine one Bitcoin, which is used by Shidan Gouran, CEO of Global Blockchain.
“What this means for the present is that motion is already happening. Because it costs about $6,000 to mine a Bitcoin, it couldn’t go too much lower than that. If no one sees any value in it, it will naturally only command its ‘hard value’ price of about that much. But as we can see, people clearly do see value in it. For example, the efforts to legalize a Bitcoin ETF are persisting. Further, story after story is hitting the news about big-name institutions taking steps to trade Bitcoin. While the idea of these big-time uses of Bitcoin were nothing more than a fantasy about a year ago, the signs are actually starting to emerge that it’s going to happen. So undoubtedly, this is stimulating demand to some degree.”
Clement Thibault, senior analyst at Investing.com, told Forbes another side to the story.
He disregards $7,000 as a milestone number although “psychologically, there might be something to it for speculators but the price is completely disconnected from any meaningful fundamentals.”
“If the level was the result of an event, development, or adoption, that would be something more substantial — but at this point, we’re trying to invent a narrative to explain the price action when there’s nothing to explain.”
Panos Mourdoukoutas, professor and chair of the Department of Economics at LIU Post, shared three econometric models run by co-author Greg Giordano, the Haye’s model, the Market Model, and the Wheatley model.
The first two place more emphasis on the supply side of the Bitcoin market and estimate its intrinsic value to be $8,778.11 and $8,335.54 respectively. The later focuses on the demand side of the bitcoin market and estimates Bitcoin to be worth $1,080.58.
The price it has raised divergent opinions right from the start and it will likely continue to do so for a long time as the market matures.
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