Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 4 March 19

binary options

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Wait DXY.  – MT is sideways normal. The dollar remains both within a weekly and daily sideways MT. Inconsistent economic performance, along with changing rate hike expectations lead to a not very clear situation. This is compounded by a mixed reaction to risk. Sometimes the USD is the safe-haven, sometimes it’s not. This inconsistency is reflected in the sideways price action. Perhaps the biggest clue to what is going to happen in the coming week is in the Bond market. US-10 year bonds have weakened over the last three days and have broken out into a bear MT. This is USD bullish.
  • Sell GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. A daily three inside down candlestick pattern off the key 1.32 level is indicative that the currency will sell-off from here. The next key Brexit date is 12th of March and with the market expecting an extension to the Brexit timeline. With market expectations where they are there is not likely to be anything new to support the currency in the coming week. Look to sell.
  • Buy USD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. With better data, progress in trade talks and rising US yields, the pair has been on a tear in the latter part of last week. The Japanese economy continues to struggle and stocks are rising. Continue to buy.
  • Wait AUD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. The Aussie struggled in the face of US strength to end the week. Weaker China data and the sell off in gold did not help. Next week there is an RBA meeting, GDP and retail sales. The risk seems to be to the downside for these events.
  • Sell EUR/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. A cluster of bearish candles near the upper Bollinger Band suggest that the pair will sell off in the coming week. Sentiment has been focused on Eurozone data and there was some improvement in the last week. This has not been reflected in the price action. Coming up this week in an ECB meeting. This could be interesting as the market is expecting a dovish hold, but there is a risk the ECB might be less dovish than expected. Still, leading up to the event we can expect EURUSD to trend lower.
  • Wait NZD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. The Kiwi remains one of the more attractive options fundamentally, but not enough so that it will buck the USD’s main trend. Dairy prices are a bright spot. Wait for now.
  • Wait USD/CHF.  – MT sideways normal. Some nervousness around trade talks, a flare up in tensions between Pakistan and India and a minor dip in equity prices saw the pair sell-off. But this risk-off flow was short lived and the pair is hovering around the key 1.00 figure. Wait for now.
  • Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Weaker GDP data and a fall in the price of oil saw USDCAD rise significantly on Friday. The BOC has mentioned that they want to hike rates further, but they may have to reassess this view given economic performance. Note that Oil has put in a minor double top which is bullish the pair.
  • Sell EUR/GBP.  – MT is bear normal. The low at 0.8630 was taken out but given the extended nature of the move and the three inside up candlestick pattern a bounce can be expected.

Crosses

  • Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait AUD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy NZD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy GBP/JPY. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy EUR/JPY. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy CAD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy CHF/JPY.  – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy GBP/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Sell AUD/NZD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Buy EUR/AUD.  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy EUR/CAD. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Sell CAD/CHF.  – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Wait NZD/CHF.   MT is sideways normal. Wait
  • Wait AUD/CHF.  MT is sideways normal. Wait

Other Markets

  • Wait USDSGD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
  • Sell USDCNH. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell Gold. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Buy Oil. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy S&P 500.  – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy DAX. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy Nikkei. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • SellT-Notes. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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